Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-3142 and Mandel, David R. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1036-2286 (2022) Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 26 (6) . pp. 514-526. ISSN 1364-6613 [Article] (doi:10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002)

[img]
Preview
PDF - Published version (with publisher's formatting)
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (936kB) | Preview
[img] PDF - Final accepted version (with author's formatting)
Restricted to Repository staff and depositor only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0.

Download (356kB)

Abstract

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g. likely) rather than numeric (e.g. 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities.

Item Type: Article
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Psychology
Item ID: 34923
Notes on copyright: Published version: Crown Copyright © 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
User License: Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Useful Links:
Depositing User: Mandeep Dhami
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2022 10:07
Last Modified: 17 Jun 2022 04:34
URI: https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/34923

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Statistics

Activity Overview
6 month trend
24Downloads
6 month trend
56Hits

Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.