Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-3142 and Mandel, David R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1036-2286 (2022) Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 26 (6) . pp. 514-526. ISSN 1364-6613 [Article] (doi:10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002)

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Abstract

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g. likely) rather than numeric (e.g. 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities.

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