Estimation of Scottish pluvial flooding Expected Annual Damages using interpolation techniques

Viavattene, Christophe ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4358-5411, Fadipe, David, Old, Jodi, Thompson, Vikki and Thorburn, Kirsten (2022) Estimation of Scottish pluvial flooding Expected Annual Damages using interpolation techniques. Water, 14 (3) , 308. pp. 1-17. ISSN 2073-4441 [Article] (doi:10.3390/w14030308)

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Abstract

Flood modelling and mapping, underpinned by hydraulic modelling, are typically used to define flood hazard and allow a quantification of risk and associated Expected Annual Damages (EAD). At a regional or national scale, such modelling is often a lengthy process, which does not allow changes in risk resulting from new science such as revised rainfall frequency estimates or climate projections to be readily quantified by policy makers. A framework of interpolation and extrapolation methods has been developed in the R language via practical application to the city of Perth in central Scotland. These methods allow existing flood mapping, design rainfall estimates and property receptor datasets combined with revised design rainfall estimates to be used to rapidly assess the consequences of change in risk and EAD. The results are evaluated against detailed hydraulic modelling and are shown to provide a good approximation of changes in flood depth and EAD for properties previously modelled as at risk of flooding, particularly residential properties, with lower confidence for non-residential properties. In the Scottish context, the methods are considered to be robust for regional and national scale application and would allow policy makers with a means to rapidly determine the consequence of changes in design rainfall estimates without the immediate requirement to undertake complex hydraulic modelling.

Item Type: Article
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Flood Hazard Research Centre
Item ID: 34580
Notes on copyright: Copyright: © 2022 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Depositing User: Christophe Viavattene
Date Deposited: 21 Jan 2022 14:35
Last Modified: 09 Feb 2022 10:45
URI: https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/34580

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