Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

Wicke, Lars, Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-3142, Onkal, Dilek and Belton, Ian (2022) Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis. International Journal of Forecasting, 38 (3) . pp. 1175-1184. ISSN 0169-2070 [Article] (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.017)

Preview

PDF - Final accepted version (with author's formatting) Available under License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0. Download (906kB) | Preview

Abstract

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participants’ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises.

Actions (login required)

View Item

Statistics

DownloadsShow export options

Export as CSVXMLJSON

Activity Overview

6 month trend

104Downloads

6 month trend

149Hits

Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.