The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis

Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-3142, Belton, Ian and Mandel, David R. (2019) The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 33 (6) . pp. 1080-1090. ISSN 0888-4080 [Article] (doi:10.1002/acp.3550)

Preview	PDF - Published version (with publisher's formatting) Available under License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0. Download (229kB) | Preview
	PDF - Final accepted version (with author's formatting) Restricted to Repository staff and depositor only Download (635kB)

Abstract

The intelligence community uses ‘structured analytic techniques’ to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) – a technique designed to reduce ‘confirmation bias’. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts’ judgment processes and conclusions was collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH-trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH’s ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgment inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful, and to explore alternatives.

Actions (login required)

View Item

Statistics

DownloadsShow export options

Export as CSVXMLJSON

Activity Overview

6 month trend

319Downloads

6 month trend

271Hits

Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.