The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies

Derbyshire, James ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1505-412X (2016) The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies. Futures, 77 . pp. 45-55. ISSN 0016-3287 [Article] (doi:10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.001)

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Abstract

Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science for FS remain somewhat opaque. This paper explicitly sets out the challenges for FS that arise from six complexity science concepts: 1) irreversibility of time 2) path dependence 3) sensitivity to initial conditions 4) emergence and systemness 5) attractor states 6) complex causation. The discussion highlights the implications of these challenges for FS tools such as horizon scanning and weak signals, and sets out the benefits of overcoming the challenges to create an explicitly complexity orientated FS. The discussion concludes with a set of questions summarising the challenge for FS from complexity science with the aim of stimulating a discussion as to how they can be met. The concluding remarks make some initial suggestions in this regard.

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