Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

Wicke, Lars, Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-3142, Onkal, Dilek and Belton, Ian (2019) Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis. International Journal of Forecasting . ISSN 0169-2070 (Published online first) (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.017)

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Abstract

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participants’ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises.

Item Type: Article
Keywords (uncontrolled): Scenario generation, forecasting, brainstorming, refugees humanitarian crisis
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Psychology
Item ID: 28969
Notes on copyright: Copyright: © 2019
International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. This author's accepted manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
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Depositing User: Mandeep Dhami
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2020 14:23
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2020 23:24
URI: https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/28969

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