Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies

Okoli, Justin and Watt, John (2018) Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies. Management Decision, 56 (5). pp. 1122-1134. ISSN 0025-1747

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Abstract

The paper draws on the naturalistic decision making (NDM) and cognitive science literature to examine how experienced crisis managers utilize the intuitive and analytical strategies when managing complex incidents. A cognitive model that describes the interplay between strategies is presented and discussed, and the specific role that intuition plays in analytical decision making is addressed.
Designed as a conceptual paper, the extant literature is reviewed to advance discussions on the theme of intuitive and analytical decision making in the naturalistic environment. A new model of expert intuition ── the information filtering and intuitive decision model ── is presented and evaluated against existing cognitive models from the wider literature.
The paper suggests that experts’ ability to make intuitive decisions is strongly hinged on their information processing skills that allow irrelevant cues to be sifted out while the relevant cues are retained. The paper further revealed that experts generally employ the intuitive mode as their default strategy, drawing on the analytical mode only as conditions warrant.
Prior research has shown that experts often make important task decisions using intuitive or analytical strategies or by combining both, but the sequence these should typically follow is still unresolved. Findings from our intuition model reveal that although intuition often precedes analytical thinking in almost all cases, both strategies exist to offer significant values to decision makers if the basis of their application is well understood.

Item Type: Article
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management (DARM)
Item ID: 24132
Notes on copyright: This article is © Emerald Group Publishing and permission has been granted for this version to appear here (https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/). Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited. This is the accepted version of the manuscript "Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies", published in the journal "Management Decision" available via the journal site at: https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-04-2017-0333
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Depositing User: John Watt
Date Deposited: 13 Apr 2018 11:27
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2018 08:17
URI: http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/24132

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