Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis

Dhami, Mandeep K. ORCID: (2018) Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis. Intelligence and National Security, 33 (2) . pp. 257-272. ISSN 0268-4527 (doi:10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252)

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Intelligence products have a degree of uncertainty associated with them. This is typically expressed using linguistic probabilities (e.g., ‘likely’), and some organizations have adopted standardized lexicons for communicating uncertainty. This paper empirically shows that intelligence analysts use a wide heterogeneity of language to communicate uncertainty. This does not include all of the phrases in standardized lexicons used by the intelligence community. In addition, analysts may use some phrases differently to that advocated. Miscommunication of uncertainty can have deleterious effects on decision-making, and so standardization of uncertainty communication should be evidence-based. This paper discusses ways in which such evidence can be generated.

Item Type: Article
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Psychology
Item ID: 23537
Notes on copyright: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Intelligence and National Security on 30/10/2017, available online:
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Depositing User: Mandeep Dhami
Date Deposited: 12 Feb 2018 16:52
Last Modified: 29 Nov 2019 22:43

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