Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed

Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Bates, Paul D. and de Bruijn, Karin and Castellarin, Attilio and Kreibich, Heidi and Priest, Sally J. and Schröter, Kai and Bagli, Stefano and Blöschl, Günter and Domeneghetti, Alessio and Gouldby, Ben and Klijn, Frans and Lammersen, Rita and Neal, Jeffrey C. and Ridder, Nina and Terink, Wilco and Viavattene, Christophe and Viglione, Alberto and Zanardo, Stefano and Merz, Bruno (2018) Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed. WIREs Water, 5 (2). e1266. ISSN 2049-1948

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Abstract

Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insurance portfolios. We review several examples of process interactions and highlight their importance in shaping spatio-temporal risk patterns. We call for a fundamental redesign of the approaches used for large-scale flood risk assessment. They need to be capable to form a basis for large-scale flood risk management and insurance policies worldwide facing the challenge of increasing risks due to climate and global change. In particular, implementation of the European Flood Directive needs to be adjusted for the next round of flood risk mapping and development of flood risk management plans focussing on methods accounting for more process interactions in flood risk systems.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Volume 5, Issue 2, March/April 2018, Article number = e1266
Research Areas: A. > School of Science and Technology > Flood Hazard Research Centre
Item ID: 23303
Notes on copyright: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Vorogushyn S, Bates PD, KdeBruijn, et al. Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed. WIREs Water. 2018;5:e1266. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
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Depositing User: Sally Priest
Date Deposited: 12 Jan 2018 16:07
Last Modified: 29 Dec 2018 04:04
URI: http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/23303

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