Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting

Derbyshire, James and Giovannetti, Emanuele (2017) Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 125 . pp. 334-344. ISSN 0040-1625

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Abstract

In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty that is both epistemic and ontic in nature. We argue that this uncertainty cannot be mitigated using forecasting techniques exclusively, because these are most useful in circumstances characteristic of probabilistic risk, as distinct from non-probabilistic uncertainty. We show that the mitigation of uncertainty in relation to NPD requires techniques able to take account of the socio-economic factors that can combine to cause present assumptions about future demand conditions to be incorrect. This can be achieved through an Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty associated with NPD by incorporating insights from both quantitative modelling alongside consideration of political, social, technological and legal factors, as-well-as stakeholder motivations that are central to successful NPD. In this paper we therefore achieve three objectives: 1) identify the aspects of the current IL process salient to mitigating the uncertainty of NPD 2) show how advances in diffusion modelling can be used to identify the social-network and contagion effects that lead to a product’s full diffusion 3) show how the IL process can be further enhanced to facilitate detailed consideration of the factors enabling and inhibiting initial market-acceptance, and then the forecasted full diffusion of a considered new product. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of this adapted IL scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty in relation to NPD.

Keywords: new product development; fundamental uncertainty; scenario planning; forecasting

Item Type: Article
Research Areas: A. > Business School > Centre for Enterprise and Economic Development Research (CEEDR)
Item ID: 21290
Useful Links:
Depositing User: Pamela Macaulay
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2017 16:44
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2018 16:42
URI: http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/id/eprint/21290

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